Oct’14 – Dec’14

October’ 2014 to December’ 2014: Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio

Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio for October to December quarter of Financial Year 2014-15, is shown in the pie-chart below. New investment based on advice should be made for the part of investor’s portfolio that is intended to be invested for longer than 3-years. First time investors are recommended to visit Why Samedh? , Asset Allocation Approach , and Value Investing Philosophy pages before making investment based on the advice.

An investment calculator can be downloaded from this link to calculate transactions required to align the portfolio with Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio for October to December quarter of Financial Year 2014-15: SMFIP FY 2014-15 Q3 Calculator

Samedh Financial Investment Portfolio India FY 2014 15 Q3

The table below shows comparative performance of Advisory’s Model Portfolio and other Financial Investment Assets, since the start of quarter:

Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio Period Nifty Gold (USD) * USDINR 3-Year FD @ SBI SDMFP Period’s Return
Nifty Gold 3-Year FD SDMFP
Previous Quarter End Sep’ 2014 7,965 24,228 8.75% 119.16 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
FY 2014-15 Q3 Oct’ 2014 8,322 23,115 8.75% 122.36 4.5% -4.6% 0.7% 2.7%
Nov’ 2014 8,588 23,303 8.75% 125.70 3.2% 0.8% 0.7% 2.7%
Dec’ 2014 8,283 24,444 8.75% 127.10 -3.6% 4.9% 0.7% 1.1%
Overall Return during the Quarter (Oct’ 2014 – Dec’ 2014) 4.0% 0.9% 2.2% 6.7%

Portfolio Explanation

Ideal Asset Allocation suggested for Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio for October to December Quarter (Q3) of Financial Year 2014-15 is as below. It has been derived using long-term pricing trends of the various asset classes and consequent return expected from them in future.

Samedh Asset Allocation India FY 2014 15 Q3

Asset Allocation Group 1: Growth Assets (GROWTH)

Allocation for quarter in Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio: 40%

40% of Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio value is allocated to Growth Asset Allocation Group during October to December quarter of 2014. This is further sub-allocated into two Asset Classes that are grouped under Growth Assets so that the sum of their sub-allocations adds up to 40%.

Growth Assets – Asset Class 1: Equity (GROWTH-EQUITY)

Allocation for quarter in Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio: 40%

40% of Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio value is allocated to Equity Asset Class during October to December quarter of 2014. This allocated portfolio value is to be invested in Asset Class Categories corresponding to Equity Asset Class.

Sixteen market-capitalization and sector based equity indices in India have sufficiently long data series available for them to analyze market cycles. These have been identified as the Asset Class Categories falling under Equity Asset Class for SDMFP. The various investment parameters corresponding to these Asset Class Categories, for October to December quarter of 2014, are mentioned in the table below. Current index levels can be viewed at NSE Live Indices Watch page for comparison.

Asset Class Category Benchmark Index Sub Limit Index Fair Value (1st Oct) Index Start Level (1st Oct) Future Prospect Premium Investment Phase Portfolio Allocation Buy Threshold for Index (Qtr) Sell Threshold for Index(Qtr) Investment Option(s)
Auto Sector Equity CNX Auto 30% 3,800 7,899 +108% Sell 0% 2,200 5,400 UTI Transp. & Log. Fund
PSU Bank Equity CNX PSU Bank 5% 1,700 3,373 +98% Sell 0% 1,200 2,250 Goldman Sachs / Kotak PSU Bank ETF
Banking Sector Equity CNX Bank Nifty 40% 10,200 15,392 +51% Sell 0% 6,100 14,300 GS Bank. ETF / Reliance Bank. Fund
Media Sector Equity CNX Media 2% 1,400 2,027 +45% Sell 0% 1,000 1,800 Reliance Media & Ent. Fund
Realty Sector Equity CNX Realty 2% 150 203 +35% Wait 0% 90 215 DLF, Unitech
Largecap Equity CNX NIFTY 35% 6,000 7,965 +33% Sell 0% 4,200 7,800 HDFC Index Fund Nifty / Sensex
FMCG Sector Equity CNX FMCG 10% 15,900 19,876 +25% Hold 0% 11,000 20,500 SBI FMCG Fund
Infrastructure Equity CNX Infrastructure 10% 2,500 3,021 +21% Wait 0% 1,750 3,300 GS Infra. ETF / UTI Infra. Fund
Metal Sector Equity CNX Metal 5% 2,450 2,866 +17% Hold 0% 1,450 3,400 SBI Mag. Comma Fund
Midcap Equity CNX Midcap 25% 9,800 11,418 +17% Hold 3% 7,800 11,800 ICICI Value Disc. Fund
Finance Sector Equity CNX Finance 60% 5,500 6,324 +15% Hold 6% 4,400 6,600 Birla SL Bank. & Fin. Svc. Fund
Energy Sector Equity CNX Energy 10% 8,300 9,275 +12% Hold 1% 5,800 10,700 UTI Energy Fund
Smallcap Equity CNX Smallcap 5% 4,650 4,943 +6% Wait 2% 3,250 6,050 Reliance Smallcap Fund
Pharma Sector Equity CNX Pharma 20% 11,000 10,847 -1% Wait 12% 8,800 13,200 SBI Pharma Fund
Public Sector Equity CNX PSE 10% 3,600 3,509 -3% Hold 6% 2,500 4,700 Baroda Pio. PSU Equity Fund
IT Sector Equity CNX IT 20% 11,850 11,303 -5% Hold 12% 8,200 15,400 SBI IT Fund

None of the sixteen Asset Class Categories is in Buy phase during October to December quarter of 2014 . Five Equity Asset Class Categories are in Sell investment phase as their market pricing is substantially higher than their value. Prior investments in these should be liquidated during the current quarter.

New equity portfolio should be allocated as per the Portfolio Allocation percentage mentioned in the table above. The allocation percentages have been derived based on following factors:

  1. A maximum of 60% of sub-limits should be allocated to IT Sector Equity, Pharma Sector Equity and Public Sector Equity. This comes to a maximum of 12% (60%*20%) for IT Sector Equity, 12% (60%*20%) for Pharma Sector Equity and 6% (60%*10%) for Public Sector Equity.
  2. A maximum of 40% of sub-limit should then be allocated to Smallcap Equity. This comes to a maximum of 2% (5%*40%).
  3. A maximum of 10% of sub-limits should then be allocated to Finance Sector Equity, Midcap Equity and Energy Sector Equity. This comes to a maximum of 6% (10%*60%) for Finance Sector Equity, 3% (10%*25%) for Midcap Equity and 1% (10%*10%) for Energy Sector Equity.
  4. For SMFIP Index the allocation for Energy Sector Equity is kept 0% and for Finance Sector Equity is limted to 5% to keep overall equity allocation to 40%.

Growth Assets – Asset Class 2: Other (GROWTH-OTHER)

Allocation for quarter in Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio: 0%

Growth Asset Class Categories other than Equity are broadly grouped as below:

  1. Precious Metals: Metals like Gold, Silver, Platinum etc that are used for investments. Gold has been identified as lead Asset Class Category for the Asset Class. Gold ETFs are available in India which are categorized as financial assets unlike physical Gold. However ETFs are not yet available for other precious metals and hence they cannot be treated as a financial asset.
  2. International Equity: Equity indices outside India that can be taken exposure of through International Equity Mutual Funds available in India, which are categorized as financial assets.
  3. Commodities: Commodities are primarily used for consumption. Investment exposure can be taken to these by investing in International Equity Funds linked to Commodities which are categorized as financial assets

Currently seven Asset Class Categories have been identified under Other Asset Class for SDMFP. The various investment parameters corresponding to these Asset Class Categories, for October to December quarter of 2014, are mentioned in the table below.

International Equity

Asset Class Category Benchmark Index Sub Limit Benchmark Index Level (1st Oct) Position in Market Pricing Cycle Investment Phase Portfolio Allocation Buy Threshold for Index (Qtr) Sell Threshold for Index (Qtr) Investment Option(s)
Europe Equity (INR) Euro Stoxx 50 8% 3,226 50% Wait 0% 2,250 3,700 DWS Top Euroland Fund
US Equity (INR) DJIA 30 15% 17,043 70% Wait 0% 10,000 18,300 Franklin US Opportunities Fund
Hong Kong Equity (INR) Hang Seng 6% 22,933 50% Wait 0% 20,400 25,800 Goldman Hang Seng BeES Fund
China Equity (INR) Shanghai Composite 4% 2,364 65% Wait 0% 1,750 3,000 Mirae China Advantage

Precious Metals & Commodities

Asset Class Category Benchmark Index Sub Limit Benchmark Index Level (1st Oct) Position in Market Pricing Cycle Investment Phase Portfolio Allocation Buy Threshold for Index (Qtr) Sell Threshold for Index (Qtr) Investment Option(s)
Agriculture Commodities S&P Global Agribusiness 2% 1,856 70% Wait 0% 1,350 2,050 DSP BlackRock World Agriculture Fund
Crude Oil / Energy West Texas Intermediate Crude 5% $ 91 20% Hold 3% $ 90 $ 140 DSP BlackRock World Energy Fund
Gold (INR) / 10gm Gold (USD) * INR/USD * 10gm/Ounce 20% 24,228 (1,217 * 61.94 * 0.32) 20% Buy 0% 24,400 34,300 GS Gold ETF

Only Gold is in Buy phase during October to December quarter of 2014. However Gold (INR) has artificially inflated value because of duty imposed on Gold imports to India. An investment in Gold (INR) is not advisable till this continues to be the case. No allocation to be made to the asset class in the current quarter.

 

Asset Allocation Group 2: Income Assets (INCOME)

Allocation for quarter in Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio: 51%

51% of Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio value is allocated to Income Asset Allocation Group during October to December quarter of 2014. This is to be further sub-allocated into two Asset Classes that are grouped under Income Assets so that the sum of their sub-allocations adds up to 51%.

Income Assets – Asset Class 1: Government Income (INCOME-GOVT)

Allocation for quarter in Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio: 40%

Government Income represents fixed-income investments backed by Government of India and carry lowest credit risk for Indian investors. These investment options have highest credit rating of AAA for Indian investors. 40% of Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio value is allocated to Government Income Asset Class during October to December quarter of 2014. This allocated portfolio value is to be invested in Asset Class Categories corresponding to Government Income Asset Class.

Nine Asset Class Categories have been identified under Government Income Asset Class for SDMFP. The various investment parameters corresponding to these Asset Class Categories, for October to December quarter of 2014, are mentioned in the table below. Current benchmark index levels can be viewed at Investing.com for comparison.

Asset Class Category Current Interest Rate Benchmark Index Benchmark Index Level (1st Oct) Position in Market Pricing Cycle Investment Phase Buy Threshold for Index (Qtr) Sell Threshold for Index (Qtr) Investment Option(s)
Senior Citizens’ Saving Scheme – 5 Yr (AAA) 9.20% G-Sec (5 Yr) 8.56% 15% Buy 8.40% 6.80% SBI SCSS
Post Office Time Deposit – 5 Yr (AAA) 8.50% G-Sec (5 Yr) 8.56% 15% Buy 8.40% 6.80% India Post – Time Deposit
National Savings Certificate – 5 Yr (AAA) 8.50% G-Sec (5 Yr) 8.56% 15% Buy 8.40% 6.80% India Post – NSC
Government Bonds – 10 Yr (AAA) 8.64% G-Sec (10 Yr) 8.65% 15% Buy 8.40% 7.00% ICICI Pru. GILT Fund – PF Option
Inflation Indexed National Saving Securities -10 Yr (AAA) 9.30% Consumer Price Inflation + 1.5% 7.8% (CPI) Floating Buy N.A. N.A. RBI INSS Bond
Public Provident Fund (PPF) – 15 Yr (AAA) 8.70% G-Sec (15 Year) 8.73% Floating Buy N.A. N.A. Any Bank – PPF Account
PSU Bank Fixed Deposit – 3 Yr (AAA) 8.75% G-Sec (3 Yr) 8.48% 15% Buy 8.30% 6.10% SBI Fixed Deposit
PSU Taxable Bonds – 3 Yr (AAA) 8.39% G-Sec (3 Year) 8.48% 15% Buy 8.30% 6.10% Birla SL Short Term Fund
PSU Tax Free Bonds – 15 Yr (AAA) 7.35% G-Sec (15 Year) 8.73% 15% Buy 8.60% 7.40% NHAI, PFC Tax Free Bonds

All the Asset Class Categories are in Buy phase during October to December quarter of 2014. Accordingly new investment up to portfolio allocation for the asset class (40%) can be made in Government Income Asset Class during the quarter. This investment should be made only at Interest Rates above the Buy Threshold for benchmark index.

SDMFP Index allocation of 40% would be divided between 10-Yr Government Bond (32%) and PSU Taxable Bond (8%).

Income Assets – Asset Class 2: Corporate Income (INCOME-CORP)

Allocation for quarter in Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio: 11%

Corporate Income represents fixed-income investments floated by private Indian companies. They carry higher credit risk than Government Income for Indian investors. These investment options may have various credit ratings but in SDMFP, investment is only considered in instruments with higher than “A” Credit Rating for Indian investors. 11% of Samedh Model Investment Portfolio value is allocated to Corporate Income Asset Class during October to December quarter of 2014. This allocated portfolio value is to be invested in Asset Class Categories corresponding to Corporate Income Asset Class.

Four Asset Class Categories have been identified under Corporate Income Asset Class for SDMFP. The various investment parameters corresponding to these Asset Class Categories, for October to December quarter of 2014, are mentioned in the table below. Current benchmark index levels can be viewed at Investing.com for comparison.

Asset Class Category Current Interest Rate Benchmark Index Benchmark Index Level (1st Oct) Position in Market Pricing Cycle Investment Phase Buy Threshold for Index (Qtr) Sell Threshold for Index (Qtr) Investment Option(s)
Private Bank Fixed Deposit – 3 Yr (AAA) 8.75% G-Sec (3 Yr) 8.48% 15% Buy 8.30% 6.10% Choose from list
Corporate Bonds / Debentures – 3 Yr (A) 10.60% G-Sec (3 Yr) 8.48% 15% Buy 8.30% 6.10% HDFC Short Term Fund
Corporate Fixed Deposit – 3 Yr (AAA) 10.00% G-Sec (3 Yr) 8.48% 15% Buy 8.30% 6.10% Choose from List
Corporate Tax Free Bonds – 15 Yr (AAA) 8.52% G-Sec (15 Year) 8.73% 5% Buy 8.60% 7.40% L&T Inf. Fin. / IDFC Tax Free Bonds

All the Asset Class Categories are in Buy phase during October to December quarter of 2014. Accordingly new investment up to portfolio allocation for the asset class (11%) can be made in Corporate Income Asset Class during the quarter. This investment should be made only at Interest Rates above the Buy Threshold for benchmark index.

SDMFP Index allocation of 11% would be made in Corporate Bonds / Debentures – 3 Yr.

Asset Allocation Group 3: Liquid Assets (LIQUID)

Weightage for quarter in Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio: 9%

9% of Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio value is allocated to Liquid Asset Allocation Group during October to December quarter of 2014. This portion is invested in the single Asset Class that is available under Liquid Assets. Even though the overall portfolio has 3-year investment horizon, 1% allocation is made to Liquid Asset Class to represent the capital in-between two investment transactions. Further 8% allocation has been transferred from Growth-Other Asset Class due to insufficient investment options in the current quarter.

Liquid Assets – Asset Class 1: INCOME (LIQUID-INCOME)

Allocation for quarter in Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio: 9%

Liquid Income represents fixed-income investments with highest liquidity for Indian investors. 9% of Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio value is allocated to Liquid Asset Class during October to December quarter of 2014. This allocated portfolio value is to be invested in Asset Class Categories corresponding to Liquid Income Asset Class.

Two Asset Class Categories have been identified under Liquid Income Asset Class for SDMFP. The various investment parameters corresponding to these Asset Class Categories, for October to December quarter of 2014, are mentioned in the table below:

Asset Class Category Current Interest Rate Benchmark Index Benchmark Index Level (1st Oct) Position in Market Pricing Cycle Investment Phase Buy Threshold for Index (Qtr) Sell Threshold for Index (Qtr) Investment Option(s)
Saving Bank Account 4.00% Govt. Regulation 4.00% N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Any Saving Bank Balance
Liquid Mutual Funds 8.56% G-Sec (90 Day) 8.56% N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. HDFC Liquid Fund

Investment Phase is not applicable to Liquid Income Asset Class and transactions can be made in corresponding Asset Class Categories as pre requirement. Accordingly new investment up to portfolio allocation for the asset class (9%) can be made in Liquid Income Asset Class during October to December quarter of 2014. Of this Saving Bank balance should be limited to 1% and 8% should be allocated to Liquid Mutual Funds.

 

SDMFP Index

SDMFP Index tracks the performance of Samedh Dynamic Mutual Fund Portfolio. The starting level of index was 119.16 on 1st October 2014, based on closing value of Investment Products on 30th September 2014. October end value of the index was 122.36 based on closing values of 31st October 2014. This implies an absolute portfolio return of 2.7% during the month of October.

Find below the SDMFP Index details table for FY 2014-15 Q3:

Asset Class Group / Asset Class / Asset Class Category / Investment Product Benchmark Last Quarter End Quarter Start (1st Oct. 14) Quarter End (31st Dec. 14)
Updated Allocated Amount Updated Allocation %age Benchmark Level NAV / Interest Rate Alloc. %age Allocated Amount Trans’n During Quarter Benchmark Investment
Level Return NAV / Int. Rate Updated Amount Updated %age Return
Baroda Pio. PSU Equity Fund CNX PSE 8.58 7.2% 3,509 8.44 6.0% 7.15 -1.2% 3,556 1.3% 8.95 7.58 6.0% 6.0%
Reliance Media & Ent. Fund CNX Media 1.15 1.0% 2,027 47.81 0.0% 0.00 -1.0% 2,387 17.8% 54.39 0.00 0.0% 13.8%
UTI Energy Fund CNX Energy 4.36 3.7% 9,275 11.95 0.0% 0.00 -3.7% 8,614 -6.8% 12.08 0.00 0.0% 1.1%
ICICI Value Disc. Fund CNX Midcap 6.45 5.4% 11,418 99.30 3.0% 3.57 -2.4% 12,584 10.2% 107.99 3.89 3.1% 8.8%
Reliance Smallcap Fund CNX Smallcap 0.00 0.0% 4,943 22.02 2.0% 2.38 2.0% 5,273 6.7% 24.09 2.61 2.1% 9.4%
SBI IT Fund CNX IT 16.40 13.8% 11,303 44.07 12.0% 14.30 -1.8% 11,216 -0.8% 45.59 14.79 11.6% 3.4%
SBI FMCG Fund CNX FMCG 5.43 4.6% 19,876 68.45 0.0% 0.00 -4.6% 20,126 1.3% 71.83 0.00 0.0% 4.9%
SBI Pharma Fund CNX Pharma 0.00 0.0% 10,847 111.86 12.0% 14.30 12.0% 10,950 0.9% 118.72 15.18 11.9% 6.1%
Birla SL Bank. & Fin. Svc. Fund CNX Finance 11.42 9.6% 6,324 13.49 5.0% 5.96 -4.6% 7,463 18.0% 16.51 7.29 5.7% 22.4%
Growth-Equity CNX Nifty 53.79 45.1% 7,965 N.A. 40.0% 47.66 -5.1% 8,283 4.0% N.A. 51.33 40.4% 7.7%
Mirae China Advantage Shanghai Composite 2.33 2.0% 2,364 13.38 0.0% 0.00 -2.0% 3,234 36.8% 14.56 0.00 0.0% 8.8%
DSPBR World Gold Fund Gold (USD) * USD/INR 6.23 5.2% 24,228 10.78 0.0% 0.00 -5.2% 24,444 0.9% 10.09 0.00 0.0% -6.4%
DSPBR World Energy Fund WTI Crude 3.26 2.7% 91 14.60 0.0% 0.00 -2.7% 53 -41.4% 13.74 0.00 0.0% -5.9%
Growth-Other Gold (USD) * USD/INR 11.82 9.9% 24,228 N.A. 0.0% 0.00 -9.9% 24,444 0.9% N.A. 0.00 0.0% N.A.
Growth N.A. 65.60 55.1% N.A. N.A. 40.0% 47.66 -15.1% N.A. N.A. N.A. 51.33 40.8% 7.7%
Templeton G-Sec LT Fund G-Sec – 10 Yr 28.56 24.0% 8.65% 29.31 0.0% 0.00 -24.0% 8.00% 7.8% 31.90 0.00 0.0% 8.8%
ICICI Prudential GILT Fund – PF Option G-Sec – 10 Yr 0.00 0.0% 8.65% 24.56 32.0% 38.13 32.0% 8.00% 7.8% 26.73 41.50 32.6% 8.8%
SBI Fixed Deposit (3 Yr) G-Sec -3 Yr 5.98 5.0% 8.48% 8.75% 0.0% 0.00 -5.0% 7.96% 2.9% 8.75% 0.00 0.0% 1.5%
Birla SL Short Term Fund G-Sec -3 Yr 0.00 0.0% 8.48% 49.54 8.0% 9.53 8.0% 7.96% 2.9% 51.07 9.83 7.7% 3.1%
Income-Govt G-Sec – 10 Yr 34.54 29.0% 0 N.A. 40.0% 47.66 11.0% 8.00% 7.8% N.A. 51.33 40.4% 7.7%
Edelwiess / IIFL NCD: 3 Yr Cumulative G-Sec -3 Yr 8.26 6.9% 8.48% 1070.00 0.0% 0.00 -6.9% 7.96% 2.9% 1095.00 0.00 0.0% 2.3%
Mahindra Finance FD – 3 Yr G-Sec -3 Yr 3.60 3.0% 8.48% 10.00% 0.0% 0.00 -3.0% 7.96% 2.9% 9.75% 0.00 0.0% 1.6%
HDFC Short Term Fund G-Sec -3 Yr 0.00 0.0% 8.48% 25.61 11.0% 13.11 11.0% 7.96% 2.9% 26.38 13.50 10.6% 3.0%
Income-Corp G-Sec -3 Yr 11.86 9.9% 8.48% N.A. 11.0% 13.11 1.0% 7.96% 2.9% N.A. 13.50 10.6% 3.0%
Income G-Sec – 10 Yr 46.40 38.9% 8.65% N.A. 51.0% 60.77 12.1% 8.00% 7.8% N.A. 64.83 51.0% 6.7%
Saving Bank Account Regulation 1.18 1.0% 4.00% 4.00% 1.0% 1.19 0.0% 4.00% 1.0% 4.00% 1.20 0.9% 1.0%
HDFC Liquid Fund G-Sec -90 day 5.98 5.0% 8.56% 26.43 8.0% 9.53 3.0% 8.33% 1.4% 27.01 9.74 7.7% 2.2%
Liquid G-Sec -90 day 7.16 6.0% 8.56% N.A. 9.0% 10.72 3.0% 8.33% 1.4% N.A. 10.94 8.6% 2.0%
SDMFP Index N.A. 119.16 100.0% N.A. N.A. 100.0% 119.16 0.0% N.A. N.A. N.A. 127.11 100.0% 6.7%